In a recent Newsletter from Jim and Susie Horne who have
been missionaries to Kenya for over 40 years, Jim indicates that 91% of the
churches in the U.S. are in decline.
91%. I’m not aware of where he
got his research, but that is a scary high number. While I don’t want to believe it, I must
admit to myself that I see it every Sunday.
So, what is really happening?
A little research indicates that this is well
documented. Not necessarily the 91%
number, but plenty of high numbers in that area. The most consistent number is that 80% of
churches are in decline. I also noticed
that it is important to look carefully at the question asked in the
surveys. If the question was “Do you attend
church frequently or regularly?” The result is a much higher number in church
attendance than if you asked, “Do you attend church at least two times a
month?” The first question in one survey
resulted with an answer of 45%. When
asked the second question, that number dropped to 22%. These were asked in a, get this, 1992 survey
that included Orthodox, Evangelical, and Protestant denominations. 1992!
In 1992 only 22% of Americans attended church at least twice a week.
Since that time there is a well-documented trend that regular
church attendance is falling. According
to the 2015 Pew Research survey, only 14.7% of people in the U.S. consider
themselves to be a Protestant (Methodist, Baptist, Lutheran, Presbyterian,
Episcopalian, etc.). This isn’t church
attendance, but those who will identify with being a Protestant. In 2007, that number was 18.1%. Not only are few people attending church, but
fewer are identifying with a church denomination. This is happening while the population
grows. The same Pew Research study
indicates there are five million fewer mainline Protestant adults in 2015 than
in 2007. This happened while the
population grew by 24 million. This
seems to me to be completely counter intuitive.
One would reason that the church would maintain a plateau or growth,
even if only slightly, with the population growth. But this clearly isn’t the case. One article indicated that the U.S. now ranks
third, behind China and India, in the number of people who are not professing
Christians. I personally find that hard
to believe after visiting Russia and I had a difficult time finding the source
of that statement, but with only 15% population that will identify with a
church it isn’t hard to imagine.
There is an exception to this trend. Churches averaging 1,000 or more in worship
have consistently grown since the 1980s, even to this present day. That category is the only tier consistently
not in decline. No one seems to really
knows why. One thought is that we live
in a consumer culture, so there is naturally a church consumer culture. And people believe they’re upgrading to first
class when they go to a larger church as there are nicer facilities and the
best services in music and preaching.
Back to our attendance topic, we have to consider that Europe
had 8% who indicated that they regularly attend a church back in 2002. Today, Europe surveys indicates that only 4%
(some articles state 2%!) regularly attend a church. America is following that pattern with zeal.
Thom Schultz is CEO of Group Publishing and director of the
film “When God Left the Building” which is a documentary about the overall
decline of congregations in America. As
they followed the decline of churches, they summarized that the declines came
as a result of a variety of factors including: internal strife, a loss of
mission, and other “really petty stuff”.
“They really just lost their love, their first love of why they were a
church in the first place.”
Another odd statistic that might relate to that last
statement is the decline in established churches. Every church 40 to 190 years old declined in
attendance. Every single one. The only churches showing increases were
built in the 1970s or later.
The current estimate is that by the year 2050, 10% or less
of Americans will attend church. This is
a very small segment of society.
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